UK lockdown: Covid deaths could be twice as high as spring

The warning will come as a scientist advising the Government’s coronavirus response warned thousands of lives would have been saved if Boris Johnson had imposed a short lockdown when experts recommended it in September.

Professor Andrew Hayward said the move would also have “inflicted substantially less damage” to the economy than the new national lockdown for England, which will be imposed on Thursday.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak said it is his “expectation and firm hope” that England will exit the second shutdown on December 2, but ministers are unable to guarantee that.

The Prime Minister will use a statement in the Commons later on Monday to say that “we will seek” to ease restrictions back into the local tiered system next month.

And he will warn that Covid-19 deaths over the winter could be twice as high as during the first wave without the move, with several senior Conservatives likely to rebel against the Government.

There is anger over the severity of the restrictions, the length they will be needed for and over the delay to imposing them.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) recommended on September 21 that a shorter “circuit-breaker” lockdown was needed.

Prof Hayward, who sits on the Government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, which works with Sage, acknowledged “we can’t turn back the clock” on imposing restrictions.

“But I think if we had chosen a two-week circuit-break at that time, we would definitely have saved thousands of lives,” he said.

“And we would clearly have inflicted substantially less damage on our economy than the proposed four-week lockdown will do.”

Meanwhile, Mr Sunak said that he appreciated “everyone’s frustration” but assured MPs that the lockdown will “as a matter of law” expire on December 2.

“Our expectation and firm hope is, on the basis of everything we know today, is the measures we put in place for the time they are going to be put in place for will be sufficient to do the job we need. And we will seek to exit these restrictions back into a tiered approach at the end of the four-week period,” he told Today.

Mr Sunak, who has extended the furlough scheme throughout the second lockdown, also said there would be an increase in support in grants for the self-employed.

He said “directionally of travel” they will increase from 40 per cent of profits but said the full details would be announced in Parliament by Mr Johnson.

The Prime Minister pulled out of a speech to business leaders at the CBI conference and will instead address MPs over the lockdown that will close pubs, restaurants and non-essential retail, while schools, colleges and nurseries can stay open.

People will also be allowed to exercise and socialise in outdoor public spaces with their household or one other person.

Facing growing unrest on the Tory backbenches, Mr Johnson is expected to say: “Models of our scientists suggest that unless we act now, we could see deaths over the winter that are twice as bad or more compared with the first wave.

“Faced with these latest figures, there is no alternative but to take further action at a national level.

“At the end of four weeks, on Wednesday December 2, we will seek to ease restrictions, going back into the tiered system on a local and regional basis according to the latest data and trends.”

MPs will debate and vote on the new measures on Wednesday but any Conservative rebellion is likely to be only symbolic with Labour poised to back the Government on the measures.

But opposition leader Sir Keir Starmer has warned of a “very human cost” to the Prime Minister delay in imposing the lockdown after Labour called for the circuit-breaker last month.

Conservative former Cabinet minister Esther McVey said she would vote against the regulations because the “‘lockdown cure’ is causing more harm than Covid”.

And Sir Graham Brady, the influential chair of the Tories’ 1922 Committee, said: “If these kinds of measures were being taken in any totalitarian country around the world, we would be denouncing it as a form of evil.”