6 bits of data Boris Johnson will use for road map out of lockdown

His decisions over how and when restrictions may be lifted will be informed by the latest Covid-19 data, which he and his colleagues will be examining closely over the weekend.

But what data will they use to make the big decisions?

There are six key categories Mr Johnson and the Government will be looking at - the rate of new cases of coronavirus; the number of hospital admissions and patients; the success of the vaccine rollout; the level of deaths; the estimated number of infections within the community population; and the estimated reproduction number (R), or growth, of the virus.

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New cases of Covid-19

 

The impact of the lockdown can be seen most in the steep decline since Christmas of the number of new cases of Covid-19.

A total of 74,961 new cases were recorded in England in the seven days to February 14 – the equivalent of 133.2 per 100,000 people.

This is down sharply from a peak of 680.8 cases per 100,000 people on January 4.

It is also the lowest seven-day rate since October 4, when the figure stood at 124.8.

The level of rates across England varies considerably, however.

The regional rates for eastern England are the lowest they have been since the autumn.

Hospital activity

The number of patients in hospital in England with Covid-19 has fallen sharply in recent weeks.

A total of 15,633 patients were in hospital as of 8am on February 18, according to the latest figures from NHS England.

This is down 54 per cent from a record 34,336 patients exactly one month earlier on January 18.

But while this is a sizeable drop, numbers at both a national and regional level are still higher than when England came out of its second lockdown on December 2.

All regions continue to report patient numbers well above those seen in May 2020, when Boris Johnson announced the initial easing of the first lockdown.

Vaccine rollout

 

A total of 13,817,914 people in England had received a first dose of Covid-19 vaccine up to February 17, according to NHS England.

This is the equivalent of 24.5 per cent of the total population of England, and 31.2 per cent of people aged 18 and over, based on the latest population estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

There are wide variations between regions, however.

NHS England figures also show that 94.5 per cent of residents of older adult care homes in England eligible to have their first dose of Covid-19 vaccine had received the jab by February 14, as well as 69.0 per cent of eligible staff in older adult care homes.

Deaths

A total of 1,280 deaths involving Covid-19 occurred in England on this date, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics.

This is the most comprehensive measure of Covid-19 mortality, as it covers all mentions of Covid-19 on death certificates.

Since January 19, the daily death toll for England has been on a slow and broadly downwards curve, dropping back below 1,000 on January 29.

Figures published by the Government, based only on people who have died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, show the daily death toll in England has fallen from a seven-day average of 903 on February 1 to 453 on February 14.

This is the lowest seven-day average since December 22.

Infections and reproduction

 

New figures for infections and reproduction will be published on Friday.

Data published last week by the ONS showed around one in 80 people in private households in England were estimated to have had Covid-19 between January 31 and February 6, down from around one in 65 people for the period January 24 to 30.

The reproduction number (R) for coronavirus in England was estimated on February 12 to be between 0.7 to 0.9, meaning on average every 10 people infected will infect between seven and nine other people.